ok
my english is not very good + some of the maths which you use i dont understand from first reading...
but
am i right that what you analyze is loot vs. hp ... and chance of global over a certain ammount?
what i think is most important , is time and place of loot. to collect data youll have to : loot , check time and note both ... over and over again ... only globals wount help i think. cause loots vary quite a lot these days... not very hard to find some data from the past and compare to nowdays.
somehow i have the feeling that
EU is tracking your run ... i dont know right now how to try to prove it ... but this also could be a sideeffect of randomnes.