Hi all.
Let me start with acknowledgment of respect I have for author of this topic. It seems he have done quite an impressive analysis. Unfortunately my experience in mathematical statistics is not sufficient to quickly understand all functions and method of measurement he suggests by reading the topic and I do not have time to pay it necessary attention to get in depth understanding of methods presented here this time.
However I have some concerns about fundamental aspects of this measurement.
I hope I can explain reason for my concern point by point outlining how i understand this experiment:
1. This is not an attempt to offer real loot function underneath the
EU, this is simply statistical research of results this function gives - thus real loot we get over time. Which is ok - you can`t prove any reasonable theory about loot function anyways - so lets just analyze what is coming out of the black box.
2. It is a bit difficult to get large samples of data even for results of this black box - loot we get. Each avatar can only get full data about his own results - and even that is not easy - so more acurate data we want - more difficult it is to get in large enough samples.
We can escape this problem, by reading only globals that appear into the system - because system offers a nice way to get access to data about all loots above 50 ped. (big respect to person for building the
http://87.62.217.174/login.asp system which allows everyone to access this data easy)
As I understand author of this thread uses results of this system for building his theory.
3. As I understand basicly author wants to know how good this or that monster "loots" comparing to other monsters by analyzing long term global data on each monster or even - all monsters together.
Let me outline some conclusions I get so far:
1. As author already states health of the monster is an important factor. Although we wanted only to analyze monster loot data with statistics and to not care about any possible details of loot function, we must assume that health plays important role in results of this black box loot function - or else we will get strange results. It is simply obvious that there is strong relation between size of the loot and size of monster health.
2.To make our results more precise thus we can assume that we measure results of loot function with respect to monster health. Thus we still assume that loot function is black box, and we analyze only results we get from it, but we acknowledge that health is a known parameter to this box. To analyze loot result itself thus we must somehow extract the effect of monster health from it.
One easy way to do this is assume Loot = health * C(x) where C is constant generated at event x by our black box of loot function which inner workings is not our concern.
This provides us with easy solution of only measuring Loot / health not plain loot.(we assume loot proportionaly increases by increasing monsters health)
Thus by measuring Loot/health we measure how good is loot with respect to monster we are hunting.
As I said I did not have time to understand all maths behind authors theory, but I believe author has taken health into account correctly.
Now let me finally get to point of my post - the main problem I see:
1. Although there is strong corelation between monsters health and size of it`s loot we loose much of this corelation if we look only at globals we get from this monster. Why?
Simply: If monster monster A has 200 health and monster B has 2000 health it does not mean that every global you get from monster B will be 10 times as big. Not even close, becasue you will get a lot small globals from B, as oposed to only rare globals from A.
This raises a problem, because current method uses data we get from globals.
Only possible solution I currently see is - increase minimum global date we take into account from monster B proportionaly.
Let me explain:
1. Killing 1000 monster A you will probably get 2 globals
2. Killing 1000 monster B you will probably get 20 globals
Of course you will get lots of small globals from B - because loot proportionaly increases with size of monster hp. So to save corelation between monsters health and monster loot in B case we look only at the globals which exceed 500 PED.
Math nehind this is easy:
Monster A health 200
Monster B health 2000
Ratio = 10
Assumption - loot should be 10x greater from B
We cant get acces to all loot date - we get only global data. So minimum loot we see is 50 ped.
In A case this means we measure only the best loots from A monster (pikes of loot function).
In B case this means we measure not only the best but medicore loots to.
To compensate this we multiply minimum measurement requirement by 10 in B case. So we get aproximately even amount of data samples in both cases.
Ok.. I am exausted for now
