Quote:
Originally Posted by Kolobok
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My own experience (and probably Witte's, if he sees this and might want to comment on it) says that this is not the case. There is no such thing as accumulation of hp (that would be identical to "hunting only" loot pool). But it is possible to find a hot mob and hot area for oneself, except for some very bad days.
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we have atm 2 explanations for the global grouping. Area or intra ava effect.
Here some more details for Hogglo loots only. They are in one area and hence there should be some area effect if it exists.
binned wait ranks
Code:
wait rank Percent
1 <= 29,50 0.36
2 29 - 190 0.28
3 190 - 1863 0.20
4 1863+ 0.16
Seq Percent Exp Ratio
1.1 0.16 0.13 1.23
1.2 0.10 0.10 1.02
1.3 0.05 0.07 0.74
1.4 0.04 0.06 0.77
2.1 0.10 0.10 1.00
2.2 0.09 0.08 1.18
2.3 0.05 0.06 0.90
2.4 0.04 0.04 0.80
3.1 0.06 0.07 0.83
3.2 0.06 0.06 1.03
3.3 0.05 0.04 1.15
3.4 0.04 0.03 1.16
4.1 0.04 0.06 0.71
4.2 0.04 0.04 0.89
4.3 0.03 0.03 0.95
4.4 0.05 0.02 1.94
The table refers to the binned wait ranks. So for every ava the wait time between globals in ranks was calculated from the overall datetime ranks. The ranks have then been grouped into wait bins using quartiles. Team globals have been excluded thereafter. Therefore, the rel. frequencies per bin are not exactly 25%. For the intra ava wait seq I did extract the ordered 2 letter words. (Btw. this is what we do in phase diagrams).
So if an ava has the following wait seq
1121442 we will get the strings
1.1 1.2 2.1 1.4 4.4 4.2
In using the overall freq. of a bin, we can calculate the expected freq. of a word. So for example, wait bin 1 has a rel. freq. of 36%, and therefore if everything is purely random, the word 1.1 should have a relative freq. of 36%*36% = 13%. We do however observe 16%, so a value that is 1.23 times higher than expected.
If you check the single words, you'll notice that the words with the same letters are always higher than expected. The bins 3 and 4 might be longer pauses between gameplay. However, also there is some grouping.
The observed freq. are significantly different from the expected ones.
What can that tell us. The double letter words 1.1, 2.2, 3.3 and 4.4 are all more freq. than expected. The words starting with 1.x do decrease in freq. from 1.1 till 1.4. So if you are in wait bin 1 you probably will stay there (global grouping). If you are in 2.x then you'll also stay there for some time (2.2). It is more likely to pass then to a 2.1 contrasted to a 2.3 or 2.4.
I don't like the bins 3 and 4 very much. They are hard to understand. They might be real waits till the next global or real pauses. Let's take the 4.4. This means that wait time between globals is several days. So if one is there he will stay there for some time because 4.3 to 4.1 are less frequently. Hard to interprete, maybe a sporadic player, or some with bad luck.
We see that waits are not equally distributed. There is a trend to a repetition of the wait states in which one is atm. This can be explained by an area effect or some intra ava mechanism. To know what it is, I might need to identify avas hunting at the same time in the same area. So Hoggs might be good for that. If there is an area effect, then they should get a similar global wait sequence. If it's intra ava, then not.
So let's see if I'm able to get a good sample.
Edit: It might be combination of both effects as well. If my assumption on intra ava hp memory is correct, then thinking on taxed areas, this might apply as well. Why should there be a payout in an area before ped's are consumed there.
I doubt that the recorded global data might be sufficient to respond to this question. With global data alone you won't know if an ava pauses. So I guess we might need some experiments. But maybe I can find something.