Real crafting COS

[Kosh]

It is a moving average for the last certain number of clicks.
Every 100 clicks it takes the average of the last 500.

I dont belive this can tell you if the average changes over time, for that you need a different test that takes the variance into account.

[Etopia]

Originally Posted by Kosh

I dont belive this can tell you if the average changes over time, for that you need a different test that takes the variance into account.

Seems people create their idea of what i mean , and tend to show what i say is not pure true.

I dont say that the total average vary in time.Its probably same success on 100k click since VU 5.2 for evry VU.

I do say that on "normal" little crafting , 50 , 100 , 500 click , there good and bad time.
for exemple , on server 1 its better to craft from 11 pm to 11:30 pm.
on server 2 its from 14:30 to 15:00..
There is cycle in the ramdom system.

MA is here to make money , and bilieve me , there more bad time than good time to click...

[Kosh]

I am sorry if I misunderstood what you said.

How does this show there is a cycle?
When taking small samples there will be a big variance, on this we agree right?

MA can make lots of money without any cycle, the expectancy for your return is allways less than 100% so they make money.

I dont see any significant statistic test to show there is a cycle.

This is my opinion, please prove me wrong

And Etopia, all this debate is in good spirit. I post here to hear experienced crafters like yourself and hopefully we can all learn something.

Kosh

[Coop_]

Originally Posted by Etopia

I do say that on "normal" little crafting , 50 , 100 , 500 click , there good and bad time.
for exemple , on server 1 its better to craft from 11 pm to 11:30 pm.
on server 2 its from 14:30 to 15:00..
There is cycle in the ramdom system.

There is "cycle" in all random systems. Unfortunately for those of us who would like to predict and benefit from the cycle, the cycle itself is, well, random.

I made a quick spreadsheet in Excel, with columns of 50 imaginary clicks each with a 42% chance of success. At the bottom of the column I totaled the successes and divided by 50, then added a moving average of 10 columns, and finally graphed the results for each 50 "clicks" and the moving average.

Guess what: the first time it looked amazingly similar to Etopia's graph, with a nice wave pattern in the moving average. By recalculating, the wave pattern would change, sometimes looking rather regular in frequency, sometimes very eratic. Sometimes the wave would peak and begin to go down, only to rise to new heights before falling. Sometimes it would flatline for a while.

What does this prove? Well, nothing really. It only shows that Etopia's actual results can be produced from a completely random system without requiring predictable "hot" or "cold" times for certain servers.

+rep to Etopia for providing so much data

[Etopia]

Originally Posted by Coop_

What does this prove? Well, nothing really. It only shows that Etopia's actual results can be produced from a completely random system without requiring predictable "hot" or "cold" times for certain servers.

Show me 1 ramdom , even basic from a computeur, that produce 30 fail in row on a 40% success average...
Staticaly , what hapen in game is not possible with a true ramdom.
3 or 4 faill in row would be kinda normal... sometime 8 fail in row can happen ... but , i dont think 30 fail in row would be as normal as it is in PE.

Well , my topic is not to prouve that MA ramdom system is not ramdom , neither to explain how found good server , good time , why som people have avatar that log data of hof , or got noob cliking 24/7 to know what server is better this week/VU...

My thread is about the real success rate , and its average depending on the bar.

[Coop_]

Originally Posted by Etopia

Show me 1 ramdom , even basic from a computeur, that produce 30 fail in row on a 40% success average...
Staticaly , what hapen in game is not possible with a true ramdom.
3 or 4 faill in row would be kinda normal... sometime 8 fail in row can happen ... but , i dont think 30 fail in row would be as normal as it is in PE.

30 fails in a row should happen about once in 20 million tries, so if that is happening very often, it provides good evidence that crafting is not true random.

Your chart and data are actually quite helpful in showing the wide variance to be expected in a relatively small run (50 tries) as opposed to much larger runs where the varience decreases substantially.

[Zairolin]

this is some great work. +rep

I had done some of this not to long ago myself but was to lazy to do the spreadsheet as I was keeping track manually. And I have to agree with you Entopia. The odd thing is the variance that you show with the 50 clicks. I found that when doing 100 clicks that the % rate is much less "spiky", almost like it needed to make up for the first 50 when going into the last 50. It may indicate that the cycle is not a huge one as I had first thought but smaller.

I would also love to see what your results are for failure%. I believe that is where the higher skill/high luck period will show the most interesting data.

[mrproper]

What about real COS from the new SR bar on the blueprints?

[Etopia]

Originally Posted by mrproper

What about real COS from the new SR bar on the blueprints?

SR bar on BP and on craft machine are same...
som kind of shema can be made to show relation of both.

[mrproper]

Originally Posted by Etopia

SR bar on BP and on craft machine are same...
som kind of shema can be made to show relation of both.

I would happily do that, but my highest qr on a BP I own is around 90% of the bar

So until I take on crafting, someone else will have to do that... And yes, using your data and two screenshots, you can easily corelate the percents.