Look here if ur loosing badly (Not Whiny)

[Hally]

Warning Long Rant that is maybe hard to understand not to mention badly speeled

Guide to economy management in PE

This is a work in progress feel free to comment as you see fit but no flaming please and if you dissagree please give valid points dont just call me a moron or start whining

An in-depth look at why so many people do bad in PE currently

First the Facts as we know them:

According to MA the ammo/bomb/materials are in a closed economy that means that there is as much peds to be looted as spend (only tt value applies)
A certain % of the peds spend in any given area/location/field is saved up and is payed out as HOF´s this value seems to change from time to time
Peoples skills affect the damage average and therefore the "cost to kill"(COT)
Lag/stability has huge effect on the average return over time
The maximum minimum damage is 50% which leads to a maximum average damage of 75%
The minimum minimum damage is 25% which leads to a maximum average damage of 62,5% (this number is even less on some highend weapons as the skills needed to attain the maximum damage on a weapon increases with the damage potential of the weapon)
The system treats all decay as money spend and the system has no peds to compensate for decay

All of these are the truth as I know it ill defend any of my claims fiercely but I might not hold all the truth yet J


Case 1 : in this case we assume that the hunter A is a brand new player with peds to spend who has bought a ml35 with Dante Amp and nemesis armor and is hunting atrox the fap is emt2600

A has very low damage minimum of 26% this % is found by diving the maximum damage with the minimum damage 29,12 minimum damage out of 112 possible this gives a average damage of 70,55 or 63%

In a 6 hours hunting we can assume we get a overall average on the damage and the average mob hunted is atrox mature with 430HP (hit point) now the average of 70.55 is divided with the HP of 430 giving a result of slightly above 6 shot to kill this is very important as a just slightly better average damage would have resulted in less than 6 shots being required so lets look at the math again

1000 atrox mature killed with 7 shots average is 7000 shots and with 17 ammoburn we end up with 119000 cells fired or 1190peds worth of ammo also we have the ammo spend on the dante amp 7000 shots of 3 ammo burn = 21000 cells or 210 peds now comes the decay of ml35 7000 shots of 2,55 178,50peds and the decay of dante amp 7000 shots of 4,00 280peds so the total expenses are

Ammo ml35 = 1190peds
Ammo Dante 210peds
Decay ml35 178,50peds
Decay Dante 280peds

Total 1858,50peds

Now its time to assume again if we assume that player A is hunting alone in an area and he is hunting long enough to get the saved up money back to the average in the form of either good average loots or as HOF´s then in a closed economy he will get 100% back of the ammo spend = 1400peds this leaves a loss of 458,50peds and we haven't counted the decay on armor and FAP this is individual for player to player but experience tell us that least 10% of ammo spend should be expected so this is another 119peds bringing the total to 1977,5peds of which 1400peds is ammo( 70.8%)

All in all total 1977,5peds


Expected return in a so called null system is 1400 (the amount of ammo spend)
Expected loss in a null system = 577,5
1400peds ammo 577,5peds loss = 29,2% loss(in a perfect null system)

Case 2 we do the exact same math for a Uber skilled player with minimum damage of 48% which leads to an average damage of 74% which on a ml35 with dante is 82,88 which gives us just over 5 shots shots pr atrox mature but again the actual average shots fired is more than 5 so 6 shots is needed on average now the math looks like this to kill 1000 atrox matures 6000 shots needs to be fired 1020peds ammo on dante 180peds decay on ml35 153peds decay on Dante 240peds

Ammo ml35 = 1020peds
Ammo Dante 180peds
Decay ml35 153peds
Decay Dante 240peds

Total 1593peds


With 10% of ammo fired as decay on fap and armor = 102ped we end up at

All in all total 1695peds

Expected return in a so called null system is 1200peds

Expected loss in a null system = 393 23,18%

Overall difference on 6 hours hunt /1000 atrox matures 282,5peds

Overall Expected loss in a null system = 284,5 which is very close to the expected


Now if we figure in that due to various reasons a player does not always get the 100% of a null system like with the current uber hofs we might be in a situation where players can only expect a 70% return because the rest 30% is being saved up for the very big ubers that only a few players can be expected to hit and "only" on very high end mobs then the math looks very similar to what many players have been complaining

Player A

All in all total 1977,5peds spend
Expected return in a so called null system is [1400 (the amount of ammo spend)] 70% 980peds
Expected loss in a null system with 70% return 997,5peds
1400peds ammo 997,5peds loss = 71,25% loss which again is very close to what some people have reported lately


Player B

All in all total 1695peds spend
Expected return in a so called null system is [1200 (the amount of ammo spend)] 70% 840 peds
Expected loss in a null system with 70% return 855peds 50,44% loss
Which leaves us with a difference of 142,5 less loss for the skilled player which which is a lot less than in the perfect null system which also explains why many uber skilled players now complain more than they used to


Comparrisons

Case 3 the uber skilled player with uber gear (imk2 modfap and no armor)

1000 atrox matures killed with minimum damage of 50% leaving an average damage of 75% (75% of 72) 54 dam so 9 shots is = just under 8 shots = 8000 shots of 15 ammo burn = 1200peds ammo decay of 8000 x0.254 =43,20ped

Ammo imk2 1020peds
Ammo amp 0peds
Decay imk2 43,20peds
Decay Amp 0peds

Total 1063,20peds


In perfect null system u get 1020 of 1063,20peds return= 4,06% loss 43,20peds loss
In null system -30% u get 714peds of 1063,20 return = 32,85% loss 369,20ped loss

And with no armor decay and only modfap decay as extra expenses this leaves a almost perfect return in the perfect null system and a much better return in the -30% null system
Now lets compare this to what we determined in case 1 and 2 to the 3 players with their respective skills and gear


Case 1 perfect null system 100% return

Average loss in %


Player A 29,2%
Player B 23,18%
Player C 4,06%

Case 2 null system -30%

Average Loss in %

Player A 71,25%
Player B 54,44%
Player C 32,85%

So whats the conclusions on all this ramblings and numbers ?

Theres several things to do about this I will try to list some mixed with facts learned

1. be very sure that you have a fairly high % if you hunt a highend mob or hunt with highend equipment (with high decay)
avoid decay if you can (sometimes high decay makes up for the price payed by loss because high kill effeciancy give you a better chance of being the one who hit the bonus )
2. don't ever hunt mobs that u die to often as the ammo spend on a mob that u don't kill is wasted and is added to the expected loss
nomatter what you do or who you are you will loose some on the average in the long run
3. the only way to avoid the inevitable loss is to loot items with high resale value
always have enough peds to get you by the slumps where u hit low return average
4. MA already tried to even it out some by letting new players get skills much faster and allowing for skills to be transferred
5. get uber gear items like imk2 impfap and such greatly reduces the costs and especially in the perfect null system makes a huge difference (see notes)
6. team hunt the team hunt function is great for helping to get the uber loot since a 6 player team has higher chance of hitting the jackpot and the higher number of players help getting to the average loot in much shorter time
7. acknowlegde this is a game and we are supposed to pay so start depositing and enjoy the game
8. use intell and hunt mainly mobs that u know from friends and contacts are currently dropping highend items
9.be very carefull when theres lag in the area where you hunt to manys misses greatly reduce your chance of doing good
10. try to hit a jackpot by extensively hunting a mob the most efficient way u can for as long as u can


ok that all good but what havnt you said ?

Theres several other factors not included in this to name a few : the fact that mobs regenerate so dammage/sec matters, that certain avatars seems to have better luck, that MA changes the rules as they see fit, that once in a while u will get very lucky or very very unlucky, that the perfect null system dosnt exist and that other players actions loss and gains affects your loots


Hope you can use these thought on PE to have a look at your own role in loosing badly i know i could

Next update will be about spotting what mobs to hunt and why i dont have succes with my own findings

[Fusion]

Very interesting post - thanks for doing all the number crunching

This is basically some of the stuff I was trying to say with this post here:
using weapons and how skills matter ...

- just in a lot more detailed way ... very interesting indeed.

[RexDameon]

Good post Hally, but does it bother anyone else that we have to think this much now?

To me hunting of all things should be simple:

Buy Equipment that matches your skills
+
Hunt Mobs that is good for your Equipment
=
70-80% Return

i.e. newb in pixie and axes hunts combibo, exo,bery,dak,sab

[Vulture]

Thnx for that info!

Im one of the dudes loosing 50% to 80% on each hunt.. been doing some improvements when i started using amps.. but that was just for a short term..
The decay is to great! (used A-105 on Karma Killer) (hunted Atroxes)

[Zyie]

Well Rex, isn't this what u are doing already? Hally only made the calculations about it and proved it to be pretty much correct. ofc anyone can do as they please if they wanna calculate their expected return % before they go out or not, or just grab the gun they like and hunt what they want to, but it can't hurt if u just know that if u hunt stuff u'll die alot on or use a gun way above or skills etc, u just have to keep in mind that u have a higher chance of loss, but as we all know u have a higher chance of getting an ATH from the huge mobs instead of chiripies, so risk more and u could gain more with some luck


Anyhow, great post Hally! just what I've suspected for a very long time but always was to lazy to calc on

+rep, cause this is a post all the whinning noobs can be directed to and HOPEFULLY understand that using a ml35+dante for example when hunting AOAs and they die like once every 5-10mins, means that no skills to use the gun+losing lots of peds on wasted ammo, they can't expect to be rich on this game after a weeks play (yeah, ok, I overexagerated but there is sooo much whine by lots of noobs, both in and out of the game.. but this specific incident I ran into a few days ago, and the noob just refused to understand when I explained to him, and he started talking about sueing MA and stuff like that.. lol)

[Devon]

I think the assumption that MA take only the decay/ all the decay is an urban legend. Supposedly Marco made a statement to this effect a long time ago, but I suspect that whatever he may or may not have said it has probably been misinterpreted.

They clearly take a % of all ped spent in game and would appear to vary this % from time to time to either accumulate money for large payouts or even inject ped back into the economy for (I presume) marketing purposes.

To differentiate between ped spent on ammo etc and decay is meaningless. Nobody is going to convince me that MA keep all the money spent by melee users for instance, just because they don't use ammo!

All that said, Hally's analysis is still very interesting.

[Nicole]

very interesting post + Rep

[Hally]

Originally Posted by Devon

I think the assumption that MA take only the decay/ all the decay is an urban legend. Supposedly Marco made a statement to this effect a long time ago, but I suspect that whatever he may or may not have said it has probably been misinterpreted.

They clearly take a % of all ped spent in game and would appear to vary this % from time to time to either accumulate money for large payouts or even inject ped back into the economy for (I presume) marketing purposes.

To differentiate between ped spent on ammo etc and decay is meaningless. Nobody is going to convince me that MA keep all the money spent by melee users for instance, just because they don't use ammo!

recently a answer from support said that PE economy is a null system and that money spend on ammo was whats used for loots but i think that u are maybe right that the decay from melee weapons is part of this null system since melee has added decay from armor and faps (atleast in theory) this also explains the bad damage/pec ratios on most melee weapons and why loot was very poor for a long time while many used the way off chart axe1x0 simply because there was very high return on "ammo spend" and therefore very low chance of a buildup

[Hally]

Originally Posted by RexDameon

Good post Hally, but does it bother anyone else that we have to think this much now?

To me hunting of all things should be simple:

Buy Equipment that matches your skills
+
Hunt Mobs that is good for your Equipment
=
70-80% Return

i.e. newb in pixie and axes hunts combibo, exo,bery,dak,sab

it dosnt bother me in any way im all for the idea that if your smater than average and use more time understanding how things work then u get advantage but still i choose to share the info with people who bother to come here on forum and read

[Kay-T]

Great post Hally the numbers and maths help to explain the feeling i get from the loots as well.
This is also expalins well why some areas have statistically better loot on average like the argo camps north of TwP and south of hades or the areas around ithaca or even longu land.
Is a good example as a good reason to hunt in places other people are hunting
More people pumping ammo into the loot pool for the area the higher chance you will get good loot or a hof.
All we have to do now is make a map of the "areas" and servers to make it easier to narrow down a good "area".
The way to map the servers or areas at least would be by finding borders and mapping revive points. die/T out at different points and distances from different places and see where ya end up and get ya a rough idea of server size.
(example ya know how when heading east of TwP ya think you should be almost to the outpost there and T/die but end up back at twin peaks. turns out that oupost is right near one of those borders).

This is also good reason to explore. so you get an idea of where mobs are so when ya see hofs and globals you can get an idea where those globals came from and have a small idea of where and when might be a good time to hunt.

Also explains why there are usually alot of globals and hofs immediately after a new VU as everybody comes in to test hunting/mining/loot of each new VU.