How to analyze loot

[Legion]

Originally Posted by Jimmy B

Of course not. Even when we're crafting, we're moving around on a spinning figure of eight, everyone knows that

good you take it offtopic.. but well it's the 8 spinning not you running on it..

[Jimmy B]

Originally Posted by Legion

good you take it offtopic.. but well it's the 8 spinning not you running on it..

My comment was no more off-topic than yours. A cryptic remark about whether or not you're standing still when you're visibly standing still crafting isn't on-topic in a discussion about how to analyse loot.

Don't get me wrong, if you know something and don't want to share it, you have every right to keep it to yourself. I just don't see why you need to leave an indecipherable cryptic clue that to anyone else reading looks like either (i) you're saying you know something we don't but you're not going to share it, or (ii) you want us to think (i).

[falkao]

added further explanations and an example to main post, section the model.

[Phaser]

Originally Posted by Legion

You dont have to check all three, as they are all more or less the exact same system.

Mining, hunting and crafting all work the exact same way

Maybe I havent express myself in a proper way, what I mean is, that yes, you can see the loot working more or less for the 3 professions. What im trying say is, that I believe the 3 professions loot are linked to each other and the rest of the world in entropia.

Lets assume there is a "loot pool" or even more "sub loot pools" like Falkao said, I mean, those loots must be linked. If memory dont fail me, I think I never saw something like a big loot in crafting, like a ATH on hunting, and some miner or crafter get a smiliar loot value in other profession.

Still, today, I believe there is more chance to hit smiliar big ATHs (not the "normal" aths now cause of the 100 hof list) but values like above 30 or 50k peds. Usualy when someone hits a loot like that in one profession I think almost all the time of that period no more big loots come out in the other 2 professions. I dont call HoFs of 2k peds big loots btw, those can be seen all over the place everyday.

So might be a "loot pool" for each profession and be aplied and distribuited for "areas", "time zones", "cycles" whatever u wanna call it, and a general loot whit the sum of every loot pool of the 3 professions.

The 3 professions loots and how they drop and when they drop must be conected to every profession. Like I said, its very rare to see a very big ATH coming on hunting and see more or less the same amount on other profession, I believe when it indeed happens and 2 professions drop a smiliar loot of a great value in peds like 40k peds or more, probaly alot of people deposit money and there is more peds flowing in the system.

Also, at least is what it seams to me when i mine, cause I mine most of the time, it seams, the best loots come at or around the end of each month more or less. People get paid from they jobs and deposit more money into the system, so, in theory, more money will be distribuited for all the players. The ones that gamble in high bets, usualy may get more loot then the ones hunt or do anything else whit less equipement or tools.

Not saying that all this is a fact ofc, in fact and lol, this is a fact in EU, nothing is considered a fact.

dam im getting my mind thinking in very weird things and using too much philosophy

Think im gonna kill something now

[Masta]

Originally Posted by falkao

indeed, this would be another approach to deal with the data but is less informative. It would be ideal to test covariates.

I think that on the contrary, looking at how different variables such as avatar characteristics or kill time affect loot would be most interesting, if you are trying to understand the loot system.

Basically, EU is a zero-sum game. This means that your gain is someone else's loss, and vice versa. Since MA "siphons away" resources through decay, average player will necessarily loose, on average. Your (very informative, by the way) findings show more specifically how much you are expected to loose by killing a given mob.

It doesn't mean that every player will loose, however, some will certainly win. Running probit/logit on a bunch of characteristics could then tell you what factors, if any, make you more or less likely to be a winner, rather than a looser. The main problem problem are data - it will be hard to collect large and comprehensive sample. Another problem is that any such findings will be useless as soon as they are made public, for obvious reasons.

Lastly, you've done a great job so far. Kudos for taking your time and doing first (to my knowledge) serious analysis of the loot system.

[Legion]

Originally Posted by Jimmy B

My comment was no more off-topic than yours. A cryptic remark about whether or not you're standing still when you're visibly standing still crafting isn't on-topic in a discussion about how to analyse loot.

Don't get me wrong, if you know something and don't want to share it, you have every right to keep it to yourself. I just don't see why you need to leave an indecipherable cryptic clue that to anyone else reading looks like either (i) you're saying you know something we don't but you're not going to share it, or (ii) you want us to think (i).

Well mine wasnt totally ot, part of it was though. But yes i belive i know something and i want you to think for yourself
And by me saying i belive in the skillgain system and that all 3 different professions are based on the very same system and that you dont stand still when your crafting should give a hint to what i mean

[Kosh]

Originally Posted by Legion

Well mine wasnt totally ot, part of it was though. But yes i belive i know something and i want you to think for yourself
And by me saying i belive in the skillgain system and that all 3 different professions are based on the very same system and that you dont stand still when your crafting should give a hint to what i mean

If you have something to share than please do so, otherwise your comments still add nothing to this topic of serious analysis.

[Legion]

Originally Posted by Jimmy B

My comment was no more off-topic than yours. A cryptic remark about whether or not you're standing still when you're visibly standing still crafting isn't on-topic in a discussion about how to analyse loot.

Don't get me wrong, if you know something and don't want to share it, you have every right to keep it to yourself. I just don't see why you need to leave an indecipherable cryptic clue that to anyone else reading looks like either (i) you're saying you know something we don't but you're not going to share it, or (ii) you want us to think (i).

Originally Posted by Kosh

If you have something to share than please do so, otherwise your comments still add nothing to this topic of serious analysis.

not to this specific topic no, sorry then for making half of my earlier post ot that brought the discussion a bit more ot :P

[falkao]

Originally Posted by Masta

I think that on the contrary, looking at how different variables such as avatar characteristics or kill time affect loot would be most interesting, if you are trying to understand the loot system.

I don't think that there are other characteristics than hp dmg done determining loot, at least I don't see them in data. Return however, is influenced by other factors as well.

Originally Posted by Masta

Basically, EU is a zero-sum game. This means that your gain is someone else's loss, and vice versa.
Since MA "siphons away" resources through decay, average player will necessarily loose, on average. Your (very informative, by the way) findings show more specifically how much you are expected to loose by killing a given mob.

this would imply that it can't be a zero sum game. The expected loss/return was exactely what I was looking for.

Originally Posted by Masta

It doesn't mean that every player will loose, however, some will certainly win.

It is not the system that implies that but more how you play it. Fortunately you can't rise stakes in EU and therefore your loss will be always limited. The only determining factor is for how long you play and how eco you do it.

Originally Posted by Masta

Running probit/logit on a bunch of characteristics could then tell you what factors, if any, make you more or less likely to be a winner, rather than a looser.

That's true but its related to another question, win strategies etc.. So it's more related to gaming theory.

Originally Posted by Masta

Lastly, you've done a great job so far. Kudos for taking your time and doing first (to my knowledge) serious analysis of the loot system.

thx for the compliments.

[falkao]

Originally Posted by Legion

...And by me saying i belive in the skillgain system and that all 3 different professions are based on the very same system and that you dont stand still when your crafting should give a hint to what i mean

I know what you mean but I have to check if I have any data about it. It should be possible to very it if it exists.

Legions theory is that loot is triggered server by server in cyclic or random turn. The problem is how to formulate your assumption.

Should we see high loot close after each other cycling through servers?

If not, then we have a pure random system and still no more clues.


Edit:

If globals per time unit are completely random, then the number of globals per time unit would be poisson distributed. Since I don't like to introduce a unit (Masta would like that) (I would have to guess it and as a consequence I will influence the results with it), I use an alternative. If the number of globals per unit is random, then the time difference between globals follows an exp distribution.

I do have time in the cut&pasted global data. If I calc the difference in time between globals for the time windows in which I was observing, then I get the follwing:


Click to enlarge

So times between globals are exp distributed and this is once again a hint, that everything is random. Moreover, since we know the distribution now we can try to understand the parameters. Mean time between globals is 7.5 min (from exp dist) and this corresponds to in mean 8 globals per hour for Ambu Y.

So, this is something that Starfinder might verify easily.

Atm we have more clues, that everything is random, so I do not understand why we should believe something different.