How to analyze loot

[falkao]

Originally Posted by kalanen

Actual amount from 9-10 is 3, 2 oily ones and one with 153ped isis. 2 of them are just duplicates generated by tracker. And yes, I have lots of breaks. Gotta work too. Usually I have (Lootius bless windowed mode) EU running for most of the day but I tend to hunt only when there's at least some globing activity on similar (loosely interpreted) hp class mobs.

Random babbling about the L-approach, the system and such:

Making peeps guilty for stupidity if they refuse to interpret their observations as part of ready made theory is a great tactic if one is after opportunity to say "i told you so". 1st to agree is classified as smart. Works well with kids.

Before landgrab meaning of looting burgundy was exactly the same as some stackables in ambu example few posts back. I globalled if I was alone in area, if not, the other hunter did with a big propability because he/she was usually into killing process allready. So why this phenomena disappeared right after landgrab (well, it still exists but there's several kills between)? Propably because combined hp of kingfishers quadrupled or so.

Same thing happened with bristles. Well okay, I dont hunt them so all i have noticed is increased cap between granduber 8k and the "little brother", which usually popped up next day before landgrab.

Few examples, why I keep standing with the hp based cycle.

Also think about scipus and troxes. Both are hunted constantly but why scipus drop big bangs more often? If system was "timer" based, shouldn't they loot big ones somewhat equally? Well, combine trox hp (rig, n of pvp1, sw of troy far n of sakura etc) and compare it to limited combined hp of sipulors.

Because everything has a tt value (except deeds), wouldn't it be - umm - like logical to align input and output with it rather than take another measurement unit "time" in use? When output is pushed forward by input, the inefficiency of player* is on the house in any given second and therefore tt value of everything in the universe is allways backed up...

* one reason why skillnerfs were/are needed

EDIT: ...and ofc area, avatar etc. have their own cycles too. Methinks everything has a simple up/down impact and cycle length is determined by hp (=tt value) it contains.

The observation on those intensively hunting avas is not a cycle but a correction. If my hypothesis is right then those avas should notice something like this. There are runs where globals trigger more or less frequently over a 1-2 hour time period. Others runs do suck in the beginning and are closed by a rather high number of globals. Moreover, those global triggering process is independent from the run. Say, you had a bad run today then it might happen rather frequently that on the next day, you might get after a short time a rather high amount of globals when you start again.

Can you verify if this happened to you?

[kalanen]

Originally Posted by falkao

Can you verify if this happened to you?

Regularly.

Field report: Everything is sticky. Only phasms had some promising variance in loot but since nothing is gonna make things move forward in this silence, I think I'm going to hit the bar downstairs! Houston, I think we're gonna have drinking problem within next few hours!

[Konve]

Originally Posted by Legion

*edit* oh btw i forgot to ask you konve, do you know anything about how games are coded? or are you just thinking from what you think would be best from a general programmer sort of view as i think your a programmer...

I'm not a programmer, or rather "I was supposed to be one - but the place, where I went to try and learn, it sucked so much I gave it up as a bad job".

My main goal in this thread is to throw some wood on the fire, because I'm too lazy to do the final job of figguring stuff out.

Originally Posted by Legion

And for your information i can say that i HAVE figured mining out The skillgains tell me where to look and my last mining runs i have been 100% correct.

This however does NOT guarantee you to make profit cause what the skills tell you can still make you have to drop 10probes or bombs to find the darn thing. But 100% the depos i have had on my last 5 runs have been exactly where they should be from what the skills tell me. I do have some minor stuff to figure out still but that are mainly just ranges, direction i know 100% This direction is quite hmm how to put it, well it's not a very precise thing. But i know for sure MA does give us hints with the skills

If ppl want to know what they mean look for my other threads where i have hinted about what stuff mean and from that figure it out. Only ones getting my info is my soc.. but most of them dont belive me

And SORRY for taking it a bit OT again

Aye mining is one thing with very few skillgains, so it's easier to figgure out. I have a pretty good idea of where to look when I get a skillgain, but I am still very much not good at it and I have nothing really figgured out.

However; ok skills do show you in the right direction - so what? When you're hunting your skills might tell you "ok, a mob close to you has loot" - but that says nothing on how much loot it is. (I'm not pointing at the difference in where the loot is and how much loot there is in that location.)

If you waste on average 10 bombs trying to find a deposit, I bet your average return will not be much different from that run where you only spent on average 5 bombs to find each deposit. Or do I? I'm having a real hard time making up my mind if loot is pre-determined or if it's avatar based.

I remember spending a few days loosing like mad crafting on a component blueprint; about 500 PED. When I got sick of it I went hunting and I went +500 PED in two hours, and then loot fell back down and I got regular returns - hardly a coincidence.

And I also remember getting a crazy feffoid global-spree resulting in 10 or so globals in about two hours, in an area where everyone else was having perfectly ordinary loot. I only regret I had to get up very early the next day and had to log off.

Originally Posted by falkao

There are 4 main subdistributions plus some others. I named those 4 normal, global, hof and ath but as already mentioned this is not correct.

c1 loot will not leed to a global, c3 with a low probability and from C4 on you will see them rather frequently.

This is very likly. But still only valid if the mob has a fixed amount of HP. Hunting snables you will of course need to reach a higher class if you want to hit a global. This was only a sidenote.

Originally Posted by falkao

I was interested in the return rate i.e. loot/cost. With c0-c1 loot alone, return is limited to about 40%. To get a better return you'll need loot from higher classes. This is from my point of view one of the main results I've got till now. Trivially spoken, you need at least pedders or globals to get a return >50%.

How do you know this, though? And would you say that the total loot % from only c0-c1 are the same no matter the HP of the mob?

this is not correct. You can't break even without < c3 loot, due to the upper limit of nomal loot. The system is however not necessarily aimed to break even at all. Mean max return I do estimate atm is 84%.

This was only a teaser. I mean if you have 20xsmall loots (1 PED) and 1xbig loot (10 PED) and you spend 30 PED - you can't break even using just the one or the other - you need both. And it's not the global itself, it's the c3 loot (or whatever size ).

[Legion]

Originally Posted by Konve

I'm not a programmer, or rather "I was supposed to be one - but the place, where I went to try and learn, it sucked so much I gave it up as a bad job".

My main goal in this thread is to throw some wood on the fire, because I'm too lazy to do the final job of figguring stuff out.



Aye mining is one thing with very few skillgains, so it's easier to figgure out. I have a pretty good idea of where to look when I get a skillgain, but I am still very much not good at it and I have nothing really figgured out.

However; ok skills do show you in the right direction - so what? When you're hunting your skills might tell you "ok, a mob close to you has loot" - but that says nothing on how much loot it is. (I'm not pointing at the difference in where the loot is and how much loot there is in that location.)

If you waste on average 10 bombs trying to find a deposit, I bet your average return will not be much different from that run where you only spent on average 5 bombs to find each deposit. Or do I? I'm having a real hard time making up my mind if loot is pre-determined or if it's avatar based.

Yes exactly so what, unless you find it on oen of the two first drops ur still likely to loose, BUT ma does tell you where to look and thus avaid the lottery part. Tje size doesnt really matter for the lottery stuff though it's just where to find it that makes it a lottery. if you ask me. And this is also why the ma dev said he might have a 2% better chance if he know exactly how the system works. I guess that i might have a bit higher chance ones i figure out the ranges though.

As for the 10 bombs example you made, i had a similar thing last night. I got a range indication so went on and mined, then i got a direction find and ok so somewhere around here.. started to bomb and ~8 probes later.. i went DOH! cause it was in the last place i probed, although if i would have gotten another skillgain of a certain type i would have known i was going in the wrong direction and thus i could have used less probes, but didnt get the gain though.

As for loot predetermined or ava based, i would say it's both, your ava has it's up and downs ie one day your good at crafting and such and the other it might be mining, and then at the same time the loot in the fields have their set parameters that changes over time.

[Acronoid]

Originally Posted by Legion

...
well i dont know exactly what he talked about as the one telling me didnt tell me that exact thing, but he said 2%, if it was roi or 2% bigger chance to hof i dunno.

...

We maybe have to find out then

Made a loot return thread, but don't expect very much posts, since I've got much stuff to do IRL lately.

[falkao]

Originally Posted by kalanen

Regularly.

Field report: Everything is sticky. Only phasms had some promising variance in loot but since nothing is gonna make things move forward in this silence, I think I'm going to hit the bar downstairs! Houston, I think we're gonna have drinking problem within next few hours!

so you have periods with a normal gloabl drop rate and periods with nearly none followed by a globy avalanche?

[kalanen]

Originally Posted by falkao

so you have periods with a normal gloabl drop rate and periods with nearly none followed by a globy avalanche?

visual presentation: ----_'_'----

Pit before and after every peak. Longer the pit is, higher the peak tend to be.

Tho, Generally I've wasted (because my own stupidity) my avatar's peaks with mobs with practically no paying potential at the current moment.

Thats virtual life.

[falkao]

Originally Posted by kalanen

visual presentation: ----_'_'----

Pit before and after every peak. Longer the pit is, higher the peak tend to be.

Tho, Generally I've wasted (because my own stupidity) my avatar's peaks with mobs with practically no paying potential at the current moment.

Thats virtual life.

hehe, shit happens. Well, atm this is only an assumption but it would fit quite well the observed data and explain the loot phenomenas.

So one confirmation.

I do not hunt for longer than 1-2 hours, but I've noticed that globals do drop as they should. There are however dry times followed by an excessive high number of successive globals. My observation windows is short due to the limited playing time.

[Acronoid]

this does me think of the "front of judea" & "judea's front" (live of brian)

philosophy, theory, theorema's, idea's, contemplations, reminiscentions, pondering, thinking, analysing, discusing,...

I wonder if your ava's ever pulled a trigger lately

Maybe a little harsh, but you can sprout idea's all you like, but unless you ever go out and shoot mobs and profit like thunder and lighting flushing in bloody hell -->

[kalanen]

Originally Posted by falkao

hehe, shit happens. Well, atm this is only an assumption but it would fit quite well the observed data and explain the loot phenomenas.

Clearly the "avatar based" part. Sometimes I think that ones ability to loot is just simply capped. I've killed mobs enough to recognize "hot" area, but big bang just doesn't show up. On the other hand SIB gear like korrsses, rikers and such pretty much ease up the pain in the deepest hell of the darkest loot pit.

Almost like skills looting (hit) and looting (cap) existed.

Critical hits (in a row), "sticky" lousy damage days and periods of gazzillions of missed shots have so much resemblance with the cycle of periods how looting goes.