How to analyze loot

[falkao]

Originally Posted by kalanen

...



...are you absolutely sure about predermined classes?

I mean there is no change of these classes being just kinda side effect of using just one formula and stack of multipliers when loot is calculated?

I don't exclude anything atm. From Hoggs I did see that c3 and part of c4 is missing. I can't say if this is only temporal or related to mob/area. Moreover, this partial truncation of c3/4 can also bee seen from the global distribution. There is an excess of 50-75 PED ones.

The area is hunted quite much these days. Hoggs did drop mainly basic stuff plus heal chips. The chips have been correlated to perc. So there might be many possibilities explaining this. Therefore I try to collect some more data on them.

Was short in time today and killed only 13 Hoggs. No global in them and loot was always below 7 PED, so I'm now in total at #45 without one global. In the first run I had 4 in more or less the same number of kills. Let's see how long I have to wait and if there is some grouping therefater.

[kalanen]

Originally Posted by falkao

I don't exclude anything atm. From Hoggs I did see that c3 and part of c4 is missing. I can't say if this is only temporal or related to mob/area. Moreover, this partial truncation of c3/4 can also bee seen from the global distribution. There is an excess of 50-75 PED ones.

c3 was roughly .4 to .5 * hp, right (typically right above cost of the kill) and c4, "mini global", something like 5 times that?

On average area and with bigger (hp 1500+) mobs those missing classes are indeed rare and c3 is one of "going up" loots mentioned earlier with ambu example. One popping up is almost a rule; somebody globals. No. of kills between c3 and peak indicates well other activity in area.

[Immortal]

I think dynera laser sights would be easier to analyse, personally. :P Only two components and no variation of input. Same loot function I would assume.

[falkao]

Originally Posted by kalanen

c3 was roughly .4 to .5 * hp, right (typically right above cost of the kill) and c4, "mini global", something like 5 times that?

On average area and with bigger (hp 1500+) mobs those missing classes are indeed rare and c3 is one of "going up" loots mentioned earlier with ambu example. One popping up is almost a rule; somebody globals. No. of kills between c3 and peak indicates well other activity in area.

c3 starts at 1*HP (PEC) and c4 at 2*HP. C1 ends at 3*HP/10 (PEC) or at about 7 PED for Hoggs. For Aurlies c3 is much less freq than c4 like 20:80. The strange thing about my Hogg run is, that c3 is completely missing, so no loot above 7 PED except the globals.

Btw, C3 ends near 2*HP/100 (PED) = 48 PED (assuming a max regain of 20%). So its close to 50 PED. Therefore C4 will trigger mostly globals, but still starts below 50 PED (about 4% should be below 50), that I didn't observe. The prob to observe none from C4 below 50 out of 140 is .003 and hence quite low. Therefore I should have observed one.

Nevertheless, as already mentioned I don't hunt Hoggs very often, but as Doer replied, there have been times where Hoggs had some Pedders. Maybe every Mob has a loot classes and MA did change something, or its a temporary effect due to hunting activities or the balance manager decided to do it that way.

The second thing on Hoggs is how globals do come. In the frist 2 runs I had one quite every 10-15 kills. With the last run I didn't get one in 45 kills. So I'm still waiting and maybe the next ones will group. During all my runs the area was rather crowded. And there have been in mean 10 globals per hour with peaks reaching 20 per hour.
Now we can ask, if it's the area to assign the global or my past hunting success.

Moreover, as suggested some posts back by turantduck, there might be other factors as well. Let's assume I'm a frequent player so that I can be compensated for that in getting not a standard item but a special one. To attribute one, peds must be saved before. So instead of getting a global of about 60 PED in every 10-15th kill, peds would be saved so that a nice hof will be returned. Well, this is all pure assumption and not verified, but I think we have also to not oversee such things.

[falkao]

Originally Posted by Immortal

I think dynera laser sights would be easier to analyse, personally. :P Only two components and no variation of input. Same loot function I would assume.

I don't get it

[ForrestPark]

Okay, I have just read every post and am hopefully up to speed.

A I understand it, Falkao has calculated:

(a) Approximately how to calculate each of the loot ranges you are likely to get from any mob, given it's HP.

(b) Approximately, the average likelihood that you will get a loot in each of the loot ranges, and therefore,

(c) Approximately, the average number of mobs you need to kill to get a global, given their HP.

That is great. A real development.

The last few pages in this thread are concerned with why we personally witness cycles where loot is sometimes up and sometimes down, and why we personally witness some loot ranges with decreased frequency and others with increased frequency.

Clearly something exists that changes the average distribution that Falkao has found.

I assume it has something to do with some of the following and maybe a few more things too...

(a) time
(b) location
(c) direction you're facing
(d) state of the overall loot pool
(e) state of the individual mob's loot pool

I personally don't think depositing has anything to do with it (it may have been relevant in the past), nor do I believe the figure of 8 theory (there is an extraordinary lack of scientific evidence!).

Working out this will be tough..... I shall start on it tonight

[kalanen]

Originally Posted by ForrestPark

(c) direction you're facing

I have been wondering when someone comes up with this one.

Many peeps have noticed the connection of facing and dmg recieved but not (not in public that is) not connection with facing and seemingly increased change for repetitive success.

Originally Posted by ForrestPark

(d) state of the overall loot pool
(e) state of the individual mob's loot pool

Loot pool...

[NightwolfAA2k5]

Loot, what is this strange thing called loot?

Ahh! The loot...

- Nightwolf

[Redster]

I want to say thank you for the analysis. But damn,, my head hurts trying to sort out all the formulas and variables. Think I need to go back to school cuz I feel like an idjut

[falkao]

I completed the test run on Hoggs and sum it up here:

I killed a total of 159 Hoggs from Y to Old. In the first 100 kills I've got a global quite with the same distance from each other at about 10-15 kills, so 9 Globals in total. From kill #101 on, I didn't get any and had to wait till kill #147 (corresponds to about 450 PED spend without any return). The global was over 700 PED followed by another in kill #149 with a value of 104 PED.

Furthermore, I didn't get any loot from C3 till kill #148, at #148 I've got one 10 Pedder (between first hof and global) and one 28 Pedder at #156. So C3 is still there but seems quite rare.

My runs have been quite short, 1.5h, 2h, 2h and .5h. So if there is an area effect, I must have been quite lucky then. From my point of view it fits more to an intra ava effect. Nevertheless, to conclude something from this short run is questionable. The only interesting thing I've seen is, the rather rare C3 class and the grouping of globals.