Loot theories and superstitious thinking

[Vedder]

Originally Posted by SpikeBlack

I've just watch a program by Deren Brown in which he demonstrated the way people begin to think that an action they have can have an effect on a random incident.

In his case it was two gold fish in a tank, which has a blank line painted half way across the front. Every time a fish passed the line it incremented a counter in another room where a group of people were surrounded by random objects but unaware of the fish. The people in the room were told that as they were in the room using the objects the counter would increment and if the counter reached 100 within 30minutes they would each get a share of some cash. As the 30mins got closer their activities got more and more random and outlandish.

At the end of this section of the show the counter did reach 100 and they got the cash, Deren then asked them what they thought was making the number increment. They came up with some theories that if they did certain actions with the objects the number went up. What Deren explained was that they had forgotten or had decided to ignore the times when they had done the same action but the number had not incremented.

At this point some of you may be thinking what the hell is Spike talking about but if you think about it the same point could be made about the hunting in EU. Deren Brown made the point that people can start believing random events are caused by their actions and I think this can be applied to the way people believe the EU loot system works. How many times have we heard 'you were doing it wrong', 'you should have switched mob' or 'you were in the wrong area'.

If the EU loot is random then spending longer hunting would mean a greater chance of you getting some decent loots compared to someone who only spends a short time. In a similar way, more people hunting means more random events / kills which again means a greater chance of getting something nice for one of them.

e.g. suppose you had a random number generator that when you press a key you got a number between 1 and 100 and you had to keep pressing a until you get a certain number at which point you would win a prize. If you only pressed it once every second it could take a while to win that prize, if 100 people were pressing buttons then there's a good chance someone will get that prize quite quickly or in the case of EU a nice loot / global / hof / ath.
Now its a this point the people who got the prize start thinking about what they were doing and may start to believe that they caused it to happen, probably not straight away so if it happens again it may start to reinforce that belief.

This is what Deren Brown called 'superstitious thinking' because people start believing that if they repeat the same actions again that they will get the result they want. So it could be that loot in EU is completely random and out of our control and any theory people have on how it works could just be them attributing random events to their own actions and forgetting all the times that it didn't work.

Yeah, interesting.

Anyway... This very basic trait in human nature is the cause of relatively harmless things such as 'EU Perception Theories' as well as dangerous stupid things such as religion.

[Eelco]

Originally Posted by Etopia

Do player hunt more where loot are good , or loot are good where player hunt the more ?

this is my new life-question

but anyway. your story is good.
kinda funny program. do you got a youtube link to it?
i'd like to see it

[kalanen]

Originally Posted by falkao

don't think so. I'm pretty sure, that when nobody deposits, there would be also no loot

In the long terms yes but since tt of everything in players possession is backed up by the system, MA could profit for some time after all depositting has stopped. Peeps are losing their backed up tt, while other players could keep "profitting" until all tt in the universe belongs to MA.

[Immortal]

Originally Posted by Eelco

this is my new life-question

Well I know the answer for me is: neither.
I continue to hunt the same mob when it's good, i chnaged when it's bad. If hunting's bad I mine. If neither are good, i craft (this is the only reason i started crafting, btw). If all three are bad...i sulk and swear, or maybe do some pvp or some texturizing, or try to find a disciple (there never are any)

[Sirhc]

Originally Posted by Etopia

anyway , if you prefert think its random and go hunt what ever when ever , i am sure those who use "tehorie" to make profit in their hunt just love you.
The most you lose , the most other can win.

While I agree with Etopia's post above I have finally come to realize we cannot prove or disprove either everything is completely random in EU or there are other factors we can spot and use to our advantage.

There have always been two schools of thought one which thinks every action in EU is a completely random occurence and others who think there is probably a bit more depth to the system. The interesting thing is both sides are continually trying to convince the other side they are wrong when neither side has definitive proof either way. MA is the all knowing all seeing eye in the Entropia Universe.

Now don't get me wrong its fun to debate theories and part of the fun of EU is trying to figure out just what MA has put in place. Is it really simplistic and random or is there more to it? One thing is for sure is its a system designed to keep us guessing and its continually evolves. If you have spent any time in PE/EU and take a look back the changes are quite evident.

I think its safe to say its OK for people to agree to disagree and if someone thinks their lucky pair O underwear gives them better loot then so be it.

I use what works for me in EU no matter how unorthodox it might seem to others. Figuring out what works and what does not is part of the fun of EU. Its like life in that respect, you figure out through trial and error, gaining skills, and using resources how to succeed and make your way.

Just some food for thought: Maybe just maybe avatars are not all designed the same. In life there are right brained and left brained people and they will view things differently as they grow. Really if you think about it each avatar in EU is as unique as the real life person who controls it. Its really no wonder everyone perceives Entropia Universe in different ways and it may very well be designed that way to keep us forever guessing.

[falkao]

Originally Posted by Sirhc

..
There have always been two schools of thought one which thinks every action in EU is a completely random occurence and others who think there is probably a bit more depth to the system. The interesting thing is both sides are continually trying to convince the other side they are wrong when neither side has definitive proof either way. MA is the all knowing all seeing eye in the Entropia Universe.

.

we had the same situation quite some years back with medical drugs. Everybody was free to believe what helps and what not. However, it took some time to find out that some therapies are completely useless (bloodsuckers for example) and that empirical studies are needed to prove something. Moreover, since there have been fatalities due to effectless therapies, nowadays every medical drug must have been tested before it can be introduced to the market.

Back to EU, we will always have theories but I tend more to believe those that have data.

[myne ah byrd]

the other day i was hunting in ithaca and someone next to me was firing his gun, having sold my imp2870 i knew the sound of that gun anywhere, we tallked about loots, the combos of gun/amps. i was telling him that i had a lot of luck with that gun, a matter a fact, i can safely say, there was a time period i was hoffing almost everyday, and globaling for sure quite often. since i sold my gun, which has been 6 months now, i have had not one hof, and the globals have all been around 50-70 peds, (and very far and few between i might add) using a 2875 or a 2910, the other day, i got a 270 ped global and got a full tt korss and decided to give that gun a whirl, well not 1 global at all with that gun. there are certain hunting spots i used to call "ole faithful" cus i could always count on them to global for me, i cant say that now. i used to think my depositing 1k usd by bank transfer was the reason i got my argo global with a eon helmet (m) less than 1 week after the deposit, but after my conversation i had in ithaca and recalling the events that have happened to me, i can say, i think it was the gun i bought with that 1k usd that got me that helmet... who really knows?? random? server? ammo spent? i think all these factors apply to loots/ globals hofs to some degree, ofc if you hunt long enough in the same area, you should see a global, that just odds, but how many times are you hunting in the same server as the 20 other people you see globaling /hoffing on the same mob as you and you get no global or hof. so the theory of server isnt always the case. i think everyone goes through peaks and valleys(cycles) with their loots, i got my ubers in the same month years in a row, but since i have changed equipment they have passed me by this year, therefore i think your equipiment/skills play a big factor in the loot as for the reasons i stated earlier, is it possible that MA has a program set, for a 50k skill player hunting with a korrs at 8:05 will global on allo young, and that is what happens, or someone with a imp2870 hunting argo scavenger at 10:00 am loots an eon helmet. or a noob hunting with the right noob gun killing a spider will ATH!!! or maybe it has to do with skills, whenever we reach the magic number with the magic skill we will global/hof ...there are all kinds of theories of what causes them, and we see it whatever way we want to believe it to be true, we will never really know... i will say ,i do believe there are players that are long overdue and deserve an ATH rather than the same person getting 5, when gravedigger finally got his ATH in space, it couldnt have happened to a more deserving player (besides someone in cK) he hunted in space constantly for months, years, so the server, ammo used ,theories just dont jive with me, there had been plenty ATH he missed out on hunting the same server and spent more ammo than the person next to him that got the ATH ...as for random theory?? thats too easy, noone that designed a game as complex as this would make a loot system so simple as "its just random" i also believe that in teams you loot better with some teammates than you do with other ones... do i think MA pushes a magic hof button for some?? not exactly, that would be illegal, they have to be held accountable since real money is involved, but how hard would it be to program a hof, reward the players they see fit and throw in a few gimmies to noobs to keep us guessing, so loots will always be random in a sense, that you dont know who will be the next to hof/global or ATH, but to think that loot is random and there is no reason for who, or why or when people global/hof or ATH is nonsense, just like a slot machine, someone can sit and play the same machine for hours dumping money into it and eventually they will get a jackpot, just like spending hours in the same hunting spot using tons of ammo and getting a good loot, or you can walk up to a slot machine put 50 cents in and win 4200 usd with one pull of a handle, random?? nah!! machine was programmed and i was lucky enough to be there...same for game, loot is programmed.. just my two sense.. or three or four lol

[Kerham]

I do believe in area/mob/time, but is also avatar based. I got to learn the hot time of longu at Rei, and pushed them daily. So did I nailed the uber? Nope. There we need to be more conscious, in own avatar performance, I think.

Btw ah, i can confirm another eon helmet on argo with im2870, if it helps (no, not me).

[Xandra]

Hi,

Originally Posted by myne ah byrd

[4144 chars without a single line break]

Oh Myne - sry, I cannot read this. My eyes are bleeding, my head is aching - maybe plz next time use at least a little "return"'s?

For loot theory:
I'm very sure loot is determined fully randomly. Wouldn't make sense otherwise - alone the idea that all bazillions of mobs on Calypso would be kept in a gigantic database, with all their individual loot, is just crazy. Not even MA would ever implement such a madness!

Anybody that has ever dealt with random generated data knows that they're rather different from what most ppl think about "random distribution" - a true random distribution doesn't mean "equal distribution"! Interpreting "waves", "veins" and even "spirals" into it would be rather easy - only problem that after next random creation all of these "waves", "veins" and even "spirals" would be elsewhere ...

Anything but pure randomness, influenced by as many parameters as possible, calculated by an most obscure algorithm, is unimaginable to me, as a database designer. "Gear" and "Skill" are very well considered, IMHO, or am I able to hunt Malcruentor? No, don't have skill nor gear, so the loot of those is beyond my possibility.

Just my 2 PEC, have fun!

[myne ah byrd]

Originally Posted by Xandra

Hi,
Oh Myne - sry, I cannot read this. My eyes are bleeding, my head is aching - maybe plz next time use at least a little "return"'s?

i figured i was taking up enough space with the post, and wouldnt take up any more space using "return" fyi...i was done with school back in 1979, didnt realize i was being graded on format. if its too hard for you to read , then dont read it, i didnt seem to have a problem typing it