Is Computer a useless skill?

[wizzszz]

Originally Posted by Oleg

Thank you for illustrating my conclusion so clearly

The chance does not rise exponentially. It remains 1 in 6. If you roll 2000 1s in a row, the chance of the next roll being a 1 is still 1 in 6 (although I'd say there's also a 95% chance that there is something wrong with your dice ).

You can, and indeed MUST take each roll as an individual statistic.

The chances to hit the "1" x times in a row does decrease exponentially.

1x = 1/6
2x = 1/6 * 1/6 = (1/6)^2
3x = 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 = (1/6)^3

However, the discussion is silly, skillgains come in waves, as i pointed out before, which especially applies to the more rare ones. And 6 times in a row doesn't mean there were other skillgains in between, at least that's how i read it.

So, could we please stop splicing hairs?

[Oleg]

Originally Posted by Brownlow

I think this is where probability comes into play... if only I had paid more attention in statistical classes at uni... something about "I'll never use this in real life"..if only I had known hehe....anyway I remember hearing something about previous results can be used to give an indication of what will come next... may just be theories ... but buggered if I know.

The thing about previous results was probably to do with modelling. If you were trying to predict, for example, traffic flow in a city centre, you'd generally start by recording a load of data about traffic flow (i.e. what has happened in the past) in order to build a model (i.e. to predict what might happen in the future).

You can also use recorded results to verify whether a hypothesis is true - i.e. if I think that I know how something will behave, I can check my hypothesis against actual data, in order to determine whether the data fits the hypothesis. Statistically, you can never be 100% certain that you are correct. The idea is to remove as much doubt as possible, so that you can say that you're 95% or 99% certain that you're correct.

As far as the dice example is concerned, you could test the hypothesis that each number has a 1 in 6 chance of being rolled by rolling the dice 1000 times and checking that each number comes up roughly 1/6 of the time. I suppose that would be a suitable method for testing that a dice is properly balanced and doesn't unfairly favour one number over another.

None of this really has anything to do with the exponential thing though - that's to do with Dependence/Independence. Two rolls of a single dice are Independent, i.e. the outcome of the second roll is not affected by the outcome of the first. But if you were taking the sum of the two rolls, that would be an example of Dependence, because the sum is affected by the outcomes of both of the rolls.

[Ionar]

Oh! Statistics! Now this is fun!

Rolling six 1 in a row is just as unlikley as roling any other exact sequense. F.ex. these three sequences [1,2,3,4,5,6], [2,4,2,6,3,1] and [1,1,1,1,1,1] all have the exact same probability of happening (though I bet most people would think the midle one more likley for some reason). How ever each and every role of the dice has the same chanse of roling a 1 regardles of how many 1 has been roled before it. Saying other wise would imply the dice has a memory of some sort (or is not a "perfect" dice ofcourse)...

Then there is ofcours the problem of makeing a computer generate randomes at all, but that's an whole other area of sience

[Immortal]

Originally Posted by wizzszz

So, could we please stop splicing hairs?

Good idea.

Originally Posted by oleg

stuff i still disagree with, as would any mathematician

Not continuing this discussion in this thread, as it's already gone way OT. If you want me to draw a tree-probability diagram for you, PM me.

Originally Posted by Doer

re: Theory: skillgains_function(atts)

Yes it requires physical data for any proof, i agree. I think if it were true it would be grossly unfair to all those people who actually played rather than autofapped.

[Oleg]

Originally Posted by Immortal

Not continuing this discussion in this thread, as it's already gone way OT. If you want me to draw a tree-probability diagram for you, PM me.

No thanks, I'll stick with my First Class Honours Degree in Mathematics and my years as a professional statistician.

[kingjoe1974]

I dont want to roll dice, I just want to gain skill points.

and besides, I have no way of controlling which skill I will gain, when I will gain that skill, and how often I will gain that skill. Seems to me that MA rolls my dice, I guess I mean if you gold plate a turd you still have a turd. I am not saying the EU is a turd but the way the skill are passed out, and some of the skills that seem to maybe have something to do with other skills or professions but not really sure what they do IE. Computer-- it is not like there is a great description on the skills, most of them say something lame as a description anyway. The skill system in EU is a turd, it has been gold plated to try to hide the fact that it is a turd.

but all of this is not important due to the fact that I and I am only talking about me. I play this game because I like this game, I enjoy wasting many hours of my day playing this game, although every hour I spend playing is time I will never get back in my life.

So back to computer is it a worthless skill, Probably but WHO REALLY CARES? I get a skill gain I feel all warm and fuzzy inside, JUST LIKE THE REST OF YOU.