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  1. #1
    Mature falkao's Avatar
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    Do we really need to gamble?

    EU is based on an RCE and to get valuable items one has to implement something. MA has chosen to provide those items in extraordinary loot. This holds true for hunting and crafting,but only partially for mining as there are no valuable items in loot like in other professions (exceptions are for instance BPís in events).

    MA explained us that to achieve this, loot has to be dynamic. As outlined here, this so called dynamic (assuming a random system) would lead to a payout depicted in the following figure.

    Fig.: Dynamic Payout vs "ava based" payout percentages


    Initially there is quite some spread between avas (light orange is 99% upper limit, orange is lower limit) ranging from 66% to about 150%. This implies that initially many avas will profit (could also be capped by provider), but this converges rather quickly to a predefined payout percentage, assumed to be 95% here. There will be, however, still some avas that will find themselves profiting (data from payout article).

    Assuming ava based payouts (fictive data), the ava itself has to accumulate PEDís before getting high loot. After PEDís have been accumulated, valuable items can be distributed and payout percentage will converge quicker to the predefined payout. But in contrast to before, there are waves due to the repetitive accumulation of PEDís and relative payout.

    The hypothesis of random payout has not been falsified yet and all we have till now looks as the assumption of complete randomness holds true (maybe with exception of area but this is not proven yet). The recent gateway HOF is something that would violate the ďava basedĒ loot hypothesis and hence Iím more and more convinced that MAís dynamic loot means purely random loot.

    Pro and cons of random loot
    Pro: Noobs get the feeling of immediate profit. Hype about globals and hofs. Easy balancing of items.
    Cons: long time players will always have the feeling to lose, except the minority that still believes to profit and has profited. Dynamic loot might be considered gambling as PED's from a single ava are spread over others. This leads also to a high drop out after long playing time.

    AVA based
    With ava based loot, balancing would become more difficult as seen from provider. Only those avas that have accumulated PEDís would get them. But for players this might be good. Only active ones that do invest will get rewarded.

    On the other side, noobs get the feeling of constantly loosing. Only after the first accumulation period one might get confident. However, game dynamics can be revealed without problems, so this initial fear might not become a problem.

    Iím also convinced that ava based loot is a better base for RCE as return of valuable items is more predictable. Hence there would be a real chance to get paid by others for invested time. This would however also imply that balancing of items, recipe lists and type of materials must be studied thoroughly.

    Atm, we do have only a limited number of valuable items and the rest is more or less TT. This is bad for an RCE as most PEDís are cycled through TT and not by crafters. But this is another problem, MA never addressed so far.

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  3. #2
    Old
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    .............................
    Last edited by Norbert; 07-22-2011 at 06:28.

  4. #3
    Mature falkao's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norbert View Post
    The system can be both "avatar" and "random" based loot, allow me to explain.

    Just a thought.
    indeed, both can be implemented at the same time and my guess is that ATH's might already work like this, plus maybe some extra collected fees.

  5. #4
    Hatchling
    Joined
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    The things that could and should be controlled based on the number of active players/depositers (cash inflow into the in game economy) are:

    - Max cutoff on loot. i.e. how high a loot can be looted from a mob/maturity combination. In the first half of the year there were way to many ATH's compared to the amount of active players/depositers. It seems that the last couple of months there was done something about this. I still think that there are to many > 5k loots.

    - Min value of loot on a mob/maturity combination. There are way to many no looters. This is causing the mean time needed to get around a 95% return to be way to high. I would suggest that there should be a min loot of around 25 to 50% of the kill cost. This would significantly improve the the return were so many people are complaining about. Getting regular returns in a hunt of 30 to 50% are no fun and. Getting rid of the no looters would help to bring this up to 60 to 70% i would think.

    - Mean of the loot. This controls for a part the so called mini's and globals. There is now a way to big emphasis on globals/HoFs. It used to be possible to break even due to mini's. Now you need at least a global preferably multiple to have a chance on breaking even.

    Looking over the 5 years i play now there is one weapon combo that i used a lot. That is the Improved EP-21 + A105. A few years ago going out on a Feffoid hunt i would always return with a minimum of about my ammo used (75 to 80% return). Now a day this minimum is around 50%. This is not helping me to motivate to play and deposit. I actually slow down on my game play to make sure my money lasts long enough. I know a lot of people who play less and play more slowly. And that is not because they do not want to play. From an economic point of view MA should tweak the loot to maximize the economic turnover of the players. If a hunters get better short term average loot he is more capable to do another hunt. Thus needing another L weapon or armor piece. Which in turn helps the crafter with selling the good he makes. In turn helping the miner with selling the ores/enmatters he mines.

    The so called loot manager that is supposed to tweak these kind of settings is either incompetent or is getting the wrong orders from his boss.

    It has been shown the last couple of years that when the loot is so bad the mouth to mouth promotion of the game goes down and the influx of new players goes down. About 3 years ago i think the maximum amount of players in game was seen. About 50 to 60k. Today i would estimate 30k active players at the most. Since it is obvious FPC is not controlling the loot but MA is that as long as the loot does not chance FPC does not stand a chance to increase the amount of active players/depositers.

    The less the game is based on gambling the better the amount of players is.
    It has been said a lot of times before it is better to make $10 from 1000 players each then $100 from 10 players. The game is tending towards the last.

    The argument that you do not hear old time uber players complain as the newer low and mid level players is only logical.
    1. They will keep quiet to protect their investments.
    2. They are able to kill a high enough volume of mobs in a short period of time so that they reach the average loot fast enough.
    3. They are capable of hunting the mobs that drop the better L gear which still has some MU thus enabling them to break even or profit a bit.
    4. Some of the players that we would think would stay in game forever already sold out or are atm selling out.
    5. There are already some ubers that only come online during events were there are items to be looted that have a big MU.

    I know there were always complains about how things go. And if that would stop i would really get scared. But i know that if i looked at the customer value for money satisfaction the last couple of years this has been in a steady decline.

    Cheers
    Siam

  6. #5
    Mature falkao's Avatar
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    Excellent Points:

    Quote Originally Posted by siam View Post
    Max cutoff on loot.
    would for sure decrease jealousy. Not sure how much we have to pay for them, but personally I would go without any ATH's.

    Quote Originally Posted by siam View Post
    - Min value of loot on a mob/maturity combination.
    There have been adjustments on lower lvl mobs but not on high end ones.
    Reducing variance of loot would help, but it would still be a random system.


    Quote Originally Posted by siam View Post
    - Mean of the loot. This controls for a part the so called mini's and globals. Now you need at least a global preferably multiple to have a chance on breaking even.
    Mean loot was always HP related. I guess you mean lower variance in loot as mentioned above.

    Quote Originally Posted by siam View Post
    If a hunters get better short term average loot he is more capable to do another hunt.
    ..
    The less the game is based on gambling the better the amount of players is.
    That's absolutely correct. It will help to cycle ped's faster. A reason why MA likes to have a large variance in loot might also be related to the amount of PED's pertained in the System, when having a large variance.



    Quote Originally Posted by siam View Post
    I know there were always complains about how things go. And if that would stop i would really get scared. But i know that if i looked at the customer value for money satisfaction the last couple of years this has been in a steady decline.
    Cheers
    Siam
    indeed, we are the customers but as long as there are players believing in their luck we won't get heard.

  7. #6
    Old Alpha
    Joined
    Nov 08 2010
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    732
    As long as loot is involved, it'll always be "dynamic" gambling because there's randomness to it. There are, however, professions that are not based on loot... and some do get ahead with those because it's all about servicing the community and not being in a competition for loot pool money... Those professions work better because, in casino terms, they are more similar to playing black jack in a casino where the player can get money directly from others directly instead of indirectly as they do in the slot machine/loot pool.

  8. #7
    Mature falkao's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mastermesh View Post
    As long as loot is involved, it'll always be "dynamic" gambling because there's randomness to it.
    if randomness is only within an ava I would not consider it as gambling. Nevertheless, as others replied, I'm pretty sure that the gambling nature of EU is counterproductive atm and should be revisited.

  9. #8
    Mature falkao's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by siam View Post
    The less the game is based on gambling the better the amount of players is.
    I'm convinced that this is true but can we prove it?

  10. #9
    Hatchling
    Joined
    Nov 01 2010
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    9
    Just ask the people that used to deposit and now stopped playing.
    I have talked to a number of those.
    They all say more or less the same things (some more or less quotes from people that i know deposited like $200 or more each month):

    - I can't make my deposit last as long as i used to be able even if i do play the same way i used to do.

    - I used to be able to play break even or profit at least half of my hunts. Now may by 1 in 10.

    - I used to get at least ammo back but now a days i may get 50% of my ammo back.

    These kind of things would definitely suggest to me that the gambling aspect of the game went to far. Yes there are a few people who still like it this way. But those people should realize that there is a big risk that they will be the only one left playing.

    Look at casino's they know that high roler clients are good for business. But they also know that they need to cater the masses because they can not live alone from the high roler clients.

    Cheers
    Siam

  11. #10
    Mature falkao's Avatar
    Joined
    Nov 02 2010
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    Let's assume we're right when assuming that the gambling nature of EU is bad for RCE and hence the player base.

    Then we have to address two issues:

    variance in loot and ava based loot.

    With reducing the variance in loot one has to solve the problem how valuable items should drop. For instance, let’s assume that loot consist of 60% of cost in 93% of cases and 6 times of cost in 7% of cases. Hence in mean we will get cost back. Here there exists the possibility do drop lower valued items in 93% of cases and valued ones in 7%. When lowering variance, in the extreme case having variance of 0, loot would be constant and hence one has to decide what should get dropped.

    Therefore I’ve opted for ava base loot. Here you can have a huge variance but the ava has the guarantee to get the predefined payout%, which is not the case with a complete random system.

 

 
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